Military Expert Rozhin Spoke About The Prospects For Legitimizing The Taliban In The International Arena

The Federal News Agency (FAN) has a negative attitude towards the ideology and activities of terrorist organizations. Information about their goals and actions is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute propaganda.

Saudi Arabia is closely following the events in Afghanistan and hopes that the situation in this country will stabilize in the near future. This is stated in a press release from the Kingdom’s Foreign Ministry.

Saudi Arabia hopes the Taliban1 (banned in the Russian Federation – editor’s note) and all Afghan parties will work to ensure security, stability and preserve lives and property. At the same time, the kingdom reaffirms its support for the Afghan people and the choices they make without any [внешнего] interference, ”the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Reverance towards the Taliban is also noticeable in Iran. Thus, the Director General of the Western Asia Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic Rasul Mousavi, commenting on the capture of Herat by militants, wrote on his Twitter account that the city came under the control of the forces of the “Islamic emirate”, and not “militants” or “terrorists”.

Beijing also announced its readiness to build relations with radical Islamists.

“The Taliban have repeatedly expressed their hope for the development of good relations with China and that they look forward to the PRC’s participation in the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan. We welcome this. China respects the right of the Afghan people to independently determine their own destiny and is ready to continue to develop … friendly and partner relations with Afghanistan, ”said a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Hua chunying.

Who is ready to cooperate

The international editorial office of the Federal News Agency discussed the prospects of legitimizing the radical Taliban movement with a military analyst and author of a Telegram channel Colonelcassad Boris Rozhin.

According to the expert, the latest statement of the Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministry, most likely, has not yet been formalized in the form of official recognition. This suggests that the kingdom and a number of other states are still waiting for the official ceremony of the transfer of power.

The FAN interlocutor noted that currently consultations are underway in Kabul on the political structure, which, in the end, will proclaim the re-establishment of the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” and legalize the actual state of affairs. After that, one can expect a series of recognitions from the world capitals.

“Most likely, [в числе таких государств] we will see Pakistan, UAE, Qatar. Turkey may be among them. And Iran, Russia and China are likely to catch up a little further. That is, those countries that are already declaring the possibility of recognizing the Taliban. Well, if he behaves adequately. I think that several dozen countries within a year will recognize the Taliban as a legitimate government in Afghanistan, ”the analyst said.

Boris Rozhin added that many countries are awaiting a meeting of the UN Security Council, at which a decision may be made to exclude the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations. True, there must be clear grounds for this. Only then will events develop along this line already automatically: first, exclusion from the list of terrorists and then international legitimation.

Russia’s position

According to the expert, the question of whether Moscow will exclude the Taliban from the list of banned organizations depends on the adoption of a decision by the UN Security Council.

“This, one way or another, will happen, since Afghanistan is in the international zone of interests of Russia. For purely pragmatic reasons, Moscow will enter into direct dialogues with the de facto authorities of the country in order to build, if not good-neighborly, then at least neutral relations, again on the principle of non-interference, ”said the FAN’s interlocutor.

According to the analyst, there is a chance to forge a warmer relationship with the Taliban. If the militants behave adequately, then economic cooperation is possible between Moscow and Kabul, the expert said. According to him, the issue of security is also important for Russia.

Boris Rozhin argues that in order to achieve legitimization, the Taliban will have to fulfill a number of guarantees. This is primarily due to external expansion. There are factions within the movement that insist on the spread of radical Islamism to neighboring countries, while the main parties give assurances that the Taliban are not going to go further and will deal with intra-Afghan affairs.

“At the political level, the Taliban emphasize that the movement will take a moderate course. Guarantees in this regard were given to China, Iran, Pakistan and Russia during the negotiations. Everyone is expecting this, but how much the words will correspond to their actions is unclear, ”the analyst said.

The problem of drug trafficking

The expert stressed that after the withdrawal of US troops, the Taliban took control of most of the drug market in Afghanistan. Now the world community, by analogy with the late 90s and early 2000s, is waiting to see if the movement will actually go to reduce poppy crops and, accordingly, heroin for the sake of further legitimization.

The spokesman for the movement Zabihullah Mujahid assures that the movement will do everything to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a center for the production of drugs. However, they should not take their word for it. To prove that there really is at least something behind these words, the Taliban first need to confirm them with their deeds within the framework of the Afghanistan described by them, living according to the rules of Sharia.

“The question remains whether the Taliban will really want to achieve a similar production cut in the current environment. This topic is relevant, and it is being discussed. The same Russia is not interested in the flow, which was cultivated by the Americans, to remain under the rule of the Taliban. Most of these drugs are deposited in the Russian Federation, and through our territory are delivered to the EU countries. There is no official plan on this issue yet. There are expectations that after the US leaves Afghanistan, everything may change, ”the FAN interlocutor summed up.

Thus, the recognition of the Taliban largely depends not on ideological views, but on pragmatic approaches. If the militants are ready to cooperate with a number of countries and fulfill certain conditions, there will be no other obstacles to legitimizing the Taliban. Moreover, there is no alternative on the horizon ready to take the place of the radicals.

1 The organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation.

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